My first reaction when starting prep work for this post was that Winter 2023 looked like one of the weakest anime seasons since I’ve been a fan.  And to be honest, that’s still where I stand with it.  My pre-season estimations can certainly be wrong (though very rarely, in truth) but on paper, this coming season looks like a howler.  If it weren’t for arguably the most anticipated show of the year (that or Boku no Kokoro no Yabai Yatsu) in Vinland Saga 2, it’d be a near-whiff.

We can qualify that statement a little, at least.  Strong anime seasons (as Fall ‘22 was, mostly) are often followed by weak ones, historically (and Spring ’23 has some serious heavyweights – especially with Golden Kamuy returning then).  Winter tends to be among the weaker seasons in most years.  But you really don’t need to look any further than the numbers to be properly aghast. In the first place, 51 new non-Netflix (at the time of this writing) series is a crazy amount for a winter season – last year had 36.  And of that, 21 are light novel adaptations, easily the highest percentage I can remember.  And obviously, over half of those are isekai.  The demand for homogeneity has become so prevalent that even isekai manga adaptations are starting to become common (and there are multiples of those this season too).

Call it the Kadokawa effect if you like.  More production than the system can comfortably sustain, an overwhelming dominance of LNs and isekai to minimize creative ambition and risk.  They’ve openly stated that this is their corporate goal, and they weren’t kidding.  Kadokawa is the biggest single contributor to the problem, no question about it.  But the larger issue remains the production committee system, which enables Kadokawa to corrode the industry artistically.  2022 was a mild blip in what’s otherwise been a steady downward trend (and it was because the quality of manga adaptation this year was collectively a little better, even as their share continued to decline), but 2023 starts out with a whiplash turn back on-course.

This is the first schedule I can ever remember where LN adaptations outnumber manga, so it’s not surprising that it’s a pretty weak one.  There are some very high-quality manga being adapted in 2023 (at least tentatively) but almost all of them are going to come later in the year.  Even following my usual practice of lowering my standards for what makes it into the preview when a schedule is soft, I still couldn’t get close to my normal one-third preview rate.  With so many LNs on the schedule that’s not surprising – I would have had to cover more than half of everything else, and that’s just not realistic.

This, more than anything, is the artistic impact the Kadokawa effect has.  Even with a bloated scheduled like this there can only be so many shows produced every season.  If you skim the LN and/or isekai off the top – never mind the CGDCT – the pool of potential keepers is ever-shrinking.  If you go into every schedule with half or more new series guaranteed to be feed corn every (well, most every) season, you need to hit on what’s left over at an unrealistically high rate for a season to be good.  It will happen some seasons as long as a lot of the very best manga keep getting adapted (as seems likely to be the case with spring) but those seasons will be the exception.

All this makes trend-spotting somewhat irrelevant.  Isekai and CGDCT are the trends – there’s no room for any others.  You’ll get a few big shounen, maybe a sports or shoujo or two.  But there’s just no space for any genres or demographics besides the big two to actually be trending.  I don’t see anything else spiking – it’s just a show or two of SF, fantasy, horror et al, scrambling for whatever minimal oxygen is left in the room.  And as long as the producers calling the shots are who they are at the moment, that’s unfortunately not going to change.

 

Let’s move on to the preview.  As usual, the poll is in the sidebar – please go vote!

 

Highest Expectations:

Vinland Saga Season 2 – MAPPA: (PV) Vinland Saga was the last series from the 2010’s (it ended on December 30, 2019) to make my Top 20 list for the decade.  Its 3-episode introductory airing was one of the finest starts from any anime in years.  And while it didn’t always reach that height for the rest of its two cours, it did often enough – especially considering that even the “lesser” episodes were still outstanding.   Any way you slice it, Vinland Saga is a great and important series, and even in a year when BokuYaba will reach the screen (now confirmed for Spring) more Vinland is the headline act.

There’s a big change here – Wit is no longer the studio, and MAPPA is.  MAPPA can obviously do very good work when they prioritize a series (though not on the level of Wit at its best), but you have to swallow a little bile when it comes to the studio’s abhorrent labor record  (though Wit’s is sadly prertty checkered as well).  It happens – I’m at the acceptance stage of grieving over it at this point.  Most of the key staff (including director Yabuta Shuuhei, now a MAPPA employee) has returned, so there’s really no reason to expect the production quality to decline significantly. Unless of course MAPPA happens and we get production delays because of an overtaxed staff (which is always a risk).

As for content, what’s coming seems to be more divisive among manga readers than what’s finished – though the ones I trust the most tend to be bullish on this material.  It’s somewhat derisively called “Farmland Saga” by the haters, a reflection that we’re in store for a less hot-headed and more reflective season.  That sounds great to me.  The absence of Askeladd is something of a concern – he was the de facto MC of the first season in a way, an antagonist who almost became a stealth protagonist.  But mangaka Yukimura Makoto has stocked this cast with memorable characters, and Thorfinn’s personal journey is the spine that runs through the entire series.

Bottom line: in Yukimura and Yabuta we trust.  There’s no reason to doubt Vinland Saga, and every reason to expect it to push hard for 2023 anime’s top spot.

Mid-table:

Kubo-san wa Mob wo Yurusanai – Pine Jam: (PV) I can say with full confidence that this is the biggest drop-off in expectations between the top series and the #2 since I’ve been doing these previews.  And it seems pretty likely to me that this is the weakest (and maybe smallest) “Mid-table” blocks I’ve ever had.  But that is what it is, and I’m somewhat more than modestly interested in Kubo-san wa Mob wo Yurusanai.  It’s a romcom with no light novel involvement, the manga seems reasonably well-regarded, and while the director is largely an unknown, Pine Jam is always an interesting and ambitious studio.

This premise – an extremely anonymous high school boy and the girl who refuses to ignore but likes to tease him – reads like a pastiche of  trendy romcom tropes.  And one riddled with potholes at that.  But the general consensus seems to be that it’s not too mean-spirited (I’ll judge that for myself) and has at least some original perspective to offer on the tropes it trades on.  In most seasons this series wouldn’t be near the top of the board, but Winter 2023 is obviously not like most seasons.

Tsurune: Tsunagari no Issha – Kyoto Animation: (PV) I have sort of an odd history with Tsurune.  It’s one of very few series (maybe three or four max) that I’ve flat-out dropped, only to pick them up again later.  There were always things it did very well – stunning visuals among them – but the overall product was a tug of war between its strengths and weaknesses.  In the end what I liked – mainly the mentor relationship between the protagonist and the Shinto priest and archer who takes him under his wing – carved a large enough role at the expense of what I didn’t (the school tropes) to make it worth covering.

Tsurune stands as  an example of what’s become one of KyoAni’s niches – melancholic, vaguely shounen-ai (age check) stories about schoolboys and their emotional struggles.  It’s also one of the studio’s least commercially successful series – and as such, another example of why Kyoto Animation’s business model is so unique in the industry.  They strongly prefer to animate material they own lock, stock, and barrel – which is mainly (formerly) obscure LNs like Tsurune.  That’s why those get movies and multiple seasons when more popular works like Hyouka – which had a traditional production committee and the implied revenue-sharing – don’t.

Hikari no Ou – Signal.MD: (PV) Hikari no Ou is a bit of an unknown for me, as I have little knowledge of the source material.  But there’s some interesting stuff here, starting with the fact that the novel it’s based on is not light in nature.  Most obviously you have Oshii Mamoru on board as writer – and it’s interesting that he’d take a gig adapting an existing property. Directing is Nishimura Junji, not any guarantor of quality but certainly a big name with some very fine series on his resume.  You also have the great Kawai Kenji providing the music (and Sakamoto Maaya on the ED too, though sadly not in the cast it seems).  It’s tempting to believe so many big names wouldn’t have been lured in unless there was something to this series.

To be honest, the premise sounds pretty boilerplate post-apocalyptic sci-fi – a disease has swept the world causing people to burst into flame whenever in the presence of natural fire.  The only usable fire for humans comes from “black beasts”, so those who can successfully hunt them are strongly in-demand.  Naturally enough you have a fated meeting between the female and male leads, who set off on a journey that will change the fate of the world.  That and ¥350 gets you a short drip at Starbucks – the proof will be in the pudding.  But there’s plenty here to have me curious, and in a season as ghastly thin as this one Hikari no Ou is a show that could change the equation if it surprised on the upside.

 

 

 

 

Modestly Interested:

Mononogatari – Bandai Namco Pictures: (PV) Yup, only five shows deep and we’re already in “Modestly Interested” – it’s just that kind of season.  Happily this offering from Sunrise has nothing to do with Nisio Issin – it’s an adaptation of a seinen manga about tsukumogami and the young exorcist who holds a grudge against them.  The manga doesn’t seem to be beloved or anything dealing with Shinto mythology has a chance of catching my interest.

Tomo-chan wa Onnanoko! – Lay-duce: (PV) Another romcom manga adaptation, though this one doesn’t have as much curb appeal for me as Kubo-san.  Still, the manga is pretty well-reviewed and we have an excellent director on-board in Golden Kamuy’s (formerly) Nanba Hitoshi.   Tomo-chan wa Onnanoko! is the story of a hard-core tomboy (named Tomo, ROFL) and her osananajimi who – naturally – she’s fallen in love with.  The problem is he’s thick as a plank and doesn’t pick up on any of her signals, seeing her as just a bro.  I’m not going to be surprised if this is pretty decent as an easy sipper, though I have limited expectations on the upside.

Tokyo Revengers: Seiya Kessen-hen – Lidenfilms: (PV) Tokyo Revengers is a big, big hit.  Not quite as big as Jujutsu Kaisen, maybe, but bigger than anything adapted since.  Like most monster hits in anime I have mixed feelings about it, but I remained invested enough to finish the first season (which I can’t say about JJK or Kimetsu no Yaiba).  There are many flaws here – sloppy writing, generally weak characters, plot twists that don’t make sense, and something of a skewed worldview.  That is what it is, but nevertheless Tokyo Revengers has something to it that draws you in.  I think part of it is a similar effect to Kimetsu, where the writing seems to have no limiters on narrative fanservice – if it thinks the fans will find it cool, it does it.

The manga ended recently, but this presumably two cour sequel certainly won’t take us to the end.  That will certainly come – unless TR gets screwed over Haikyuu fashion, its final arcs doomed to be crammed into too-short theatrical films in a final cash grab – because there’s no way this series won’t receive a full adaptation.  There will be a lot of head-desk moments along the way I don’t doubt, but also stretches of quite entertaining pulp and even the odd emotional crescendo.  Tokyo Revengers isn’t a great series by any means but a new season is certainly an event.

Ayakashi Triangle – Connect: (PV) Ayakashi Triangle is a Jump+ manga featuring the genderswap trope, which almost never leads anywhere you’d want to go.  Mangaka Yabuki Kentarou is certainly a big name, with Black Cat to his own name and as the artist of the To LOVE-Ru franchise.  The rest of the plot – two teenagers who share the ability to see ayakashi and their complicated relationship – sounds pretty routine.  I suspect this might not be terrible but suffice to say my expectations are pretty modest.

Buddy Daddies – P.A. Works: (PV) PAW do loves their originals, and this one is by the quite accomplished Kakihara Yuuko – mainly an adapter, but anybody whose resume has Tsuki ga Kirei on it is a proven writer of original anime.  Pretty much no plot details are known at this point but it looks to be another in anime’s seemingly endless “Three Men and a Baby” riffs.  Not so much a sleeper as a complete wild card.

Revenger – Ajia-Do: (PV) Another original, another wild card.  The biggest name associated with Revenger is writer Urobuchi Gen, who if I’m honest really isn’t all that but is certainly capable of delivering something more interesting than most writers.  Director Fujimori Masaya (Kemono Jihen) is pretty solid, too.  All we really know is that a spate of assassinations in the samurai Satsuma Clan are at the center of the mystery, though with Urobutcher involved there’s likely some supernatural element.  If he can keep his interest level up until the final episode (which is no sure thing with Urobuchi), Revenger certainly has the chance to be decent.

Koori Zokusei Danshi to Cool na Douryou Joshi – Zero-G, Liber: (PV) This one is the story of a salaryman who’s actually some sort of magical being who zaps his co-workers into an arctic wasteland whenever he concentrates too deeply.  A weird premise to be sure but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  From what I can tell the web manga it’s based on is considered to be pretty good, so I figure it’s worth checking out an episode or two.

Ooyukiumi no Kaina – Polygon Pictures: (PV) CGI powerhouse Polygon delivers this fantasy manga adaptation about a post-apocalyptic frozen world and the fated pair who have the power to change it.  The manga is written by Nihei Tsutomu, a familiar muse for Polygon at this point having had his Sidonia no Kishi adapted by the studio.  Even knowing virtually nothing of the manga I kind of feel like we know exactly what to expect from Ooyukiumi.

 

Will Definitely Blog: Vinland Saga Season 2 – from eight this season to one next.  Talk about extremes.

Sleepers: This is a dilemma.  I’ve never had no sleepers in a season preview, but literally nothing in this one give me that vibe.  So do I just roll with that, or force myself to pick something?  I guess the former is too depressing, so I’ll say… Buddy Daddies, I guess?  Kakihara Yuuku writing at least allows for the possibility.

 

OVA:

As per usual these days not a lot going down here.

Itou Junji: Maniac – 01/19/2023: (PV) Anime’s track record with Itou Junji is a bit spotty to say the least.  And to be frank I’ve always found Itou to be a bit overrated – though to be fair, that is based on those anime adaptations.  Still, I’m always interested when somebody takes another crack at it.  This time around Deen are adapting a mixed bag of stories from across Itou’s catalog, though as presumably most will be previously unadapted that may beg the question of just why that is.

 

 

Theatrical:

Not a lot here (as usual for winter) but what there is really stands out.

Blue Giant – 02/17/23: (PV) Yeah, this one is a hype monster for me, full-on.  One of the spate of great “Blue” manga out there, the Blue Giant franchise (there are three series to date) by Ishizuka Shinichi is one of the most awarded seinen properties in recent decades.  Being a seinen it’s not a huge shock that it’s never received an anime despite extremely strong sales, but that changes now with this film.

Blue Giant is the tale of a Sendai high school saxophone player with a fierce love for jazz.  Basically it’s a chronicle of his quest to become the best sax player in the world, and the people he meets along the way.  I don’t know how much of this massive story the movie is going to attempt to tackle, but with the great Tachikawa Yuzuru (this was the project that necessitated his reduced role in Mob Psycho 100 III) directing, my expectations are pretty sky high.  I wish it were a series, but a theatrical film is certainly better than nothing.

Gridman Universe – 03/24/23: (PV) The list of Trigger series I’ve really liked isn’t a long one, but SSSS.Gridman and SSSS.Dynazenon are at the head of that list by a wide margin.  Both were excellent in every respect  – writing, visuals, direction.  And, though set in the same mythology, quite different (Gridman was plot-driven, Dynazenon was character-driven).  It was probably inevitable that Trigger would crossover these two successful series at some point, and this film in that crossover.  As with Blue Giant I’d rather it was a series, but we take what we can get.

There isn’t much out there in terms of detail – just the above preview.  I’d say it looks great and if I have any uncertainty, it’s that in those 30 seconds at least there’s too much Gridman and not enough Dynazenon (as in, almost none).  There’s no guarantee the full film will follow that pattern of course, but I do rather hope it doesn’t because as much as I enjoyed Gridman (a lot, it made my Top 10 list in 2018) I liked Dynazenon even better.