Winter 2020 Season Preview

New year, new decade – but this schedule is looking very familiar.

Winter 2020 strikes me as an oddball of a season in some respects. Superficially it’s very generic – overloaded as it is with LN adaptations (isekai especially), idol series and cute girl navel-gazing (the holy trinity of bad anime in the 2010s). But there are a couple of aspects to the schedule that strike me as unusual. In the first place, there are relatively few sequels by recent standards. It makes sense that sequels have proliferated in recent years – production committees have increasingly disdained risk in favor of the safe and familiar, and nothing fits that bill better than a sequel. Reflexively we might say that the paucity of sequels is a good thing, but when one looks at the percentage of good shows that have been sequels in recent years, it gives you pause.

Another thing that stands out to me is the uncertainty factor. I was actually surprised I ended up previewing as many series as I did for this season, given how poor I expected this season to be based on series announcements. But there are no (well- maybe one) real elites at the top, and the bulk of this post is comprised of shows I would consider boom or bust. Less sequels aligning with more uncertainty certainly makes sense, but even the new series this season seem to collectively defy confident prediction more than in most seasons.

As to the question of volume, for one season at least the steady decline in the number of series produced for TV seems to have slowed a bit. This winter has 40 shows as opposed to 43 in Winter 2019, but after the steady 25-30% drop in year-over-year production we’ve been seeing, that’s a much smaller decline. I’ll be interested to see whether the rest of 2020 continues to roughly mirror 2019’s production – if so, that’s an indication that whatever the root causes are (overtaxed production infrastructure being a prime candidate) may be abating.

As always I peer at the schedule and try to see genre trends, and some – the endless stream of broadly isekai LN and game adaptations and an industry growing increasingly desperate looking for ludicrous ways to spin CGDCT – are obviously thriving. I think we’re seeing a general hardening of audience targeting – hentai is more overt than ever, isekai more isekai. As well, there seem to be fewer and fewer realistic shows – series with no sci-fi, fantasy or magical realism elements. Everything has to have a hook these days it seems – and while some of those shows are fantastic (pretty much all of my top picks for Winter fall under one of those umbrellas) this trend makes me appreciate series like Kono Oto Tomare and Hi Score Girl that much more.

With that, let’s move on to the preview.  As usual, the poll is in the sidebar – please go vote!

 

 

Highest Expectations:

Jibaku Shounen Hanako-kun – Lerche: (PV) Hanako-kun was one of the manga I hit on in my 2019 anime announcement prediction (I got Beastars too, and I thought I had Ao Ashi but that turned out to be a stage play).  One of the indicators of a manga’s impact which you almost never hear about unless you’re in Japan is how bookstore staff feel about it.  I noticed early on that this one always seemed to be prominently merchandised even without publisher marketing displays, even before it became a modest hit.  Booksellers love Jibaku Shounen Hanako-kun, and that’s one of my favorite leading indicators for future adaptation (as well as a source for manga to pick up myself).

Not to oversell it, but I kind of knew there was something special about Aida Iro’s manga before I even started reading it.  The art is special, the wit and intelligence is special, the presentation is special.  The “Toilet Bound Hanako” myth is of course a common “seven school mysteries” entry, but the twist here is that Hanako is a boy.  He grants wishes, which is what draws an occult-loving girl to contact him, but… that doesn’t really tell the whole story.  Everything about Jibaku Shounen Hanako-kun is more than you expect it to be.  It has a good staff at Lerche, and has dodged the ABKY (Anybody But Kaji Yuuki) bullet by casting Ogata Megumi (!) as Hanako-kun.  I’d love to have more than one cour, but I’m thrilled this brilliant manga is coming to the screen.

 

 

Mid-table:

Dorohedoro – Mappa: (PV) After no less then five shows in the “Highest Expectations” category in fall we have only the one here, which certainly reflects my overall lower expectations for winter.  But it’s a decent Mid-table shelf, at least in terms of series that seem to have a lot of upside.  Chief among that group for me is Dorohedoro, though there are enough question marks that I can’t quite bump it up to the top level.  While the Dorohedroro manga is certainly much-loved, it’s 23 volumes (ending in 2018) and we’ve received no announcement on episode count – and the flood of truncated adaptations of completed manga in recent years has produced mixed results.  The anime is also Netflix, with the challenges that implies, and the preview was pretty CGI-heavy.

For all that, it’s still a critically-acclaimed seinen horror-fantasy and for that alone Dorohedoro is one of this season’s frontrunners.  A gritty and dark story of a desolate slum whose residents are exploited by magic-users and the deformed (by magic) man who hunts them and searches for a means to restore his humanity, Dorohedoro is not a mass-produced model.  The staff looks more functional than brilliant and there are certainly yellow flags which you ignore at your own peril, but if this series gets the time to really tell the manga’s story effectively (which seems like a longshot, if we’re honest) Dorehedoro has a chance to be one of 2020’s best.

Pet – Geno Studio.: (PV) Originally scheduled for fall, Pet finally hits the screen in January.  Anime’s current trend of adapting long-finished source material is showing no signs of abating, and while it does frustrate me sometimes when I see so many great current manga crying out for adaptations, the obvious upside is that we get anime like Pet. I haven’t read Miyake Ranjou’s 2003 manga but it’s very well-regarded, and has already inspired a stage play. At 5 volumes, it should be a good fit for a single cour anime.

Pet is the story of a group of psychics who can effectively possess people and manipulate their memories. Use of this ability has a corrosive effect on the sanity of both victim and perp, and the users are exploited by nefarious types seeking to profit from their ability. With Oomori Takahiro directing and longtime collaborator Murai Sadayuki writing, there’s no reason to think this adaptation won’t bring out the best in the material.

Somali to Mori no Kamisama – Satelight: (PV) I don’t know a whole lot about this series, except that the manga is regarded as pretty good and the previews have been quite impressive. The story of a golem and a little girl’s friendship in a world where humans are persecuted to near-extinction by creatures of faerie, Somali to Mori no Kamisama looks as if it almost be high fantasy. Yasuda Kenji is a very experienced and pretty solid director and there’s a good staff list here generally. As long as Somali doesn’t disappear too for down the sinkhole of cute girl navel-gazing it looks like it has a chance to be pretty good and pretty distinctive.

Haikyuu!!: To the Top – Production I.G.: (PV) Everyone’s favorite exclamation points are back for a fourth season.  Honestly there aren’t many surprises at this point – Haikyuu has been remarkably consistent through its first three seasons and if it’s your bag, you’re probably not in need of any convincing.  I enjoy this series a lot, even if it doesn’t quite reach the level of truly elite sports shounen for me.  The one exception to that are the visuals, which I would argue are probably the most lavish for any sports anime in TV history.

Runway de Waratte – Ezόla (PV) Runway de Waratte is another one in that Somali category for me – a generally well-regarded manga I know almost nothing about.  This time the story follows a high school girl who dreams of being a model and her male classmate who dreams of designing clothes but drops out of school to support his family.  The studio is relatively unknown Ezόla and the staff has no marquee names, but the premise here sounds kind of interesting and not too familiar.  Maybe a hint of a sleeper vibe with this one.

 

 

Modestly Interested:

Magia Record: Mahou Shoujo Madoka☆Magica Gaiden – Shaft: (PV) This is the tier with most of the traffic, but that’s just the sort of season this is.  A return to the Church of Madoka is certainly interesting, but I see little reason to expect much from this sequel.  I liked the first season (it made my Top 10 in 2011) but the story had pretty much run its course – and I think Urobuchi Gen feels the same way.  Gen properties post-Gen have a pretty ugly track record, and Shaft has become even more of an ouroboros of Shaft-isms over the past 8 years.  No question Madoka Magica is a cultural phenomenon as much as an anime, but in 2020 that and $1.80 will get you a tall drip at Starbucks.

Eizouken ni wa Te wo Dasu na! – Science SARU: (PV) There’s no question that Yuasa Masaaki – and equally, the team (including Eunyoung Choi) of disciples working under him – is a formidable creative force in anime.  But they’re not automatics for me – I take Yuasa on a case-by-case basis because while his talent always clicks with me, his sensibility doesn’t.  I confess I’m a bit puzzled as to why a director with so much clout and theatrical success should choose what strikes me as a very mediocre manga as his next TV project – I don’t think Eizouken is terrible or anything, but it reads as very pedestrian plucky girls make anime feed corn.  But who knows, maybe it gets a lot better after the first four chapters.

Kyokou Suiri – Brain’s Base: (PV) It’s always nice to get a reminder that Brain’s Base still exists, even as a shadow of its former stature.  This manga adaptation is a fantasy about a teenage girl who was kidnapped at 11 and made a “God of Wisdom” by faerie creatures, who took her eye and arm and still nag her to mediate and troubleshoot for them.  There are some other interesting elements here – a relationship between the heroine and an older college student with his own troubled past among them.  The glory days of Brain’s Bast are long past, but the cast and staff are pretty good and Kyokou Suiri is a genuinely interesting manga that defies cliche a good bit of the time.  Maybe a sleeper.

ID:Invaded – TROYCA: (PV) Original sci-fi anime from name director Aoki Ei and mangaka Maijou Outarou.  Not too much is known about the plot except it involves a detective (by law, played by Tsuda Kenjirou) in a virtual world trying to solve the murder of a young girl.  Could be anywhere from great to awful and will most likely be somewhere in-between, but Aoki directing an original is enough to at least get a trial run.

Darwin’s Game – Nexus : (PV) Honestly the survival game genre is far from a favorite of mine.  But hey, the general consensus seems to be that the manga isn’t terrible so I’ll give Darwin’s Game an episode or two to do something interesting.

number24 – PRA: (PV) Is it me, or does it seem like there are a lot of little-known studios handling production this season?  number24 seems to be displaying odd timing as a rugby manga premiering right after the World Cup ends, but maybe the production committee is banking on that event causing a lasting spike in the sports’ popularity in Japan.  Pluses: original sports anime aren’t all that common, nor are sports series set at the university level.  The first name I check with original series is not the director but the writer, and Nakase Rika is at least experienced.  No expectations either way, but anime can always use another good sports series.

Housekishou Richard-shi no Nazo Kantei – Shuka: (PV) The Case Files of Jeweler Richard is based on a light novel, which certainly lowers expectations, but at least it’s jousei.  Sounds more or less like the sort of modern detective story that’s so trendy in anime lately – a British jeweler and a genius college student solve mysteries together.  I’ve heard no indication that the source material is especially well-regarded but Iwasaki Tarou is a good director, so we’ll give it a shot.

Boku no Tonari ni Ankoku Hakaishin ga Imasu. – EMT Squared: (PV) Another chuunibyou comedy, this time an adaptation of a manga I’d not heard of.  The straight man this time is a guy, who tries not to let the extremely chuubyou classmate he gets tangled up with wreck his normal school life.  A long shot at best, if I’m honest.

Oshi ga Budoukan Ittekuretara Shinu – 8bit: (PV) I’m probably nuts to even be in the game here – a series about a girl who loves an idol so much she says she’d die to see her play at the Budokan?  But I’m here for 8bit – they’re an interesting studio and have done some little gems (Shounen Maid, Miira no Kaikata, Hoshiai no Sora).  Shounen Maid (and NHK no Youkoso!) director Yamamoto Yuusuke is in charge here.

 

Will Definitely Blog: Jibaku Shounen Hanako-kun, Haikyuu!!: To the Top 

Sleepers: Runway de Waratte, Kyokou Suiri

 

 

OVA:

Slim to say the least.

Haikyuu!! – Riku vs. Kuu – 01/22/20: (PV) Two episode OVA adapting part of volumes 22 and 23.  This is actually the Jump Festa special so the premiere will be in late December.

ACCA: 13-ku Kansatsu-ka – Regards – 02/14/20: (PV) Set one year after the events of the TV series/manga.  Seems to be original material.

Haikyuu!! – 03/04/20: (PV) 10 short eps of stop-motion animation bundled with the manga.

Chuubyou Gekihatsu Boy Special- 03/25/20: Unaired episode bundled with Vol. 4 of the Blu-rays.

 

 

 

Theatrical:

Much less crowded (and interesting) than fall.

Made in Abyss Movie 3: Fukaki Tamashii no Reimei – 01/17/20: (PV) After two recap movies, Made in Abyss finally gets down to new business with “Fukashi Tamashii no Reimei”.  The Bondrewd arc – teased by the last few eps of the TV series – is very much in focus here.  I’ve been struck by how much hype this movie is getting in Japan, but then I never expected Made in Abyss to be popular in the first place so don’t go by me.  I don’t pay to see recap movies just on principle, but the opportunity to see Kinema Citrus tackle this material on the big screen is impossible for me to pass up.

Ongaku – 01/20: Ongaku is kind of a flyer for me but it looks interesting.  Three punks with no musical experience start a band – that’s all I know, really, except it’s based on a manga.

 

 

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25 comments

  1. J

    Just about the only thing that worries with me Dorohedoro so far are the CGI characters, but other than that I’m optimistic so far. Dorohedoro definitely isn’t the mass-produced model – it’s gritty and raw, it’s chaotic and messy, it’s violent – but it’s also super cohesive, mixes elements together that shouldn’t mesh together but somehow makes them work, and has just a really, really good cast. Going by the PVs, I see no indication that they’d go for a rushed adaption, at the very least (though this wouldn’t work to begin with due to the structure of the story), so from what we get, there should be at least no corners cut. Though not sure if it’d sell well, since this is so different from what the mainstream is used to. I’m already excited about the OST in particular – what was heard in the PVs was magnificent. In fact, speaking about OST – the manga actually got one. I can recommend to give it a listen, because it’s just as unique as the manga – definitely not what you’re probably used to from anime.

  2. Yes, that was a good PV generally. I have high hopes – it’s my #2 pick of the season. Just too many warning signals to feel totally confident.

  3. M

    I look forward to Hanako-kun anime, and as expected only a veteran seiyuu like Megumi Ogata can play Hanako because Hanako has a complex personality. Felt like her voice too deep sometimes (maybe cause I imagined it a bit cutesy due to the art) but she nailed the creepiness based on PV. Love how all the supporting cast are basically still new faces, so at least the anime will sounds fresh.

    Oh, and there was that Oda Cinnamon Nobunaga anime airing next season too right? Basically another Oda Nobunaga anime but reincarnated as dogs. I’ll just check out that because of comedy.

  4. At this point I’m pretty much boycotting Oda Nobunaga ludicrous reinventions on principle. If anime wants me back, it can give me a Heike Monogatari series – then I’ll think about this Oda crap.

    For me, it really was an “ABKY” situation with Hanako-kun – I was terrified they were going to cast him. Ogata Megumi is a distinct presence, but also a very good actor so I think she can handle it.

  5. M

    Lol that’s what I guessed on why it wasn’t on the list.

    Well it’s why I love anime adaptions from Square Enix magazine – they always make sure the anime has decent staff and the actors are properly auditioned and suitable in their roles no matter how popular the voice actors are. I can’t even remember any anime from them that has Yuki Kaji in a lead role. Even Megumi Ogata was surprised that she got a lead role for a new anime instead of reprising her old roles.

  6. Y

    Dang, this looks like the first season where I might end up only watching one anime (Haikyuu). Might give Pet and Hanako-kun a try…

  7. Those would be good shouts if you ask me.

  8. d

    Looks like a dry season if I’m being honest…but Fall 2019 was better than expected so who knows.

  9. I don’t disagree – it looks mediocre to me too. But if Pet or Dorohedoro surprises me and ends up being exceptional that will make a big difference.

  10. B

    (Reminder:not a native English speaker/writer)

    Wow. Runway de waratte in mid? Maybe that’s the Taisho award nomitation which had an impact on you. Anyway, knowing how having read the manga and the staff have an impact on your expectations (no offense here), I am not going to commit the same mistake and trying to sell it.

    Also because even I highly doubt that the anime will be able to transcribe the quality of the art and the emotion of the manga. But there is for sure one great trait regarding the “main” girl. Let’s see if it will be a shared opinion…

    But it will the opposite for me regarding “Jibaku” as I know absolutely nothing about it. So, I am curious.

    (on another matter, what a pity for Ao Ashi but hey…that is a Shougakukan series and they seem to really not have the favors of production committee. Even though, I should say that I prefer its shounen counterpart that is “Be blues!”).

  11. y

    I feel that Eizouken will be an awesome series. The manga was nominated for manga taisho in 2018 (Beastars won) and Yuasa is a good director to adapt this unique manga style.

  12. ” a series about a girl who loves an idol so much she says she’d die to see him play at the Budokan?”

    The idol is actually a girl. That show has yuri-vibe all over it

  13. A

    Wow, I haven’t heard Megumi Ogata’s name in a long while. She was basically my childhood obsession for her work in YYH especially, so I’m definitely looking forward to this. Will probably read the manga soon before the anime drops.

  14. d

    I can’t begin to express how hyped I am for Pet. I haven’t been this pumped for a series in forever. It not only looks like my kind of stuff (a seinen psychological thriller based on a finished, award winning manga is more than enough to have me sold) but it’s also being handled by Murai Sadayuki, who also did Boogiepop Phantom, Perfect Blue and (specially ) Mouryou no hako… I mean, talk about being in good hands 🙂
    I’m also pretty optimistic about Dorohedoro. I love the gritty style I’ve seen so far in the PVs (well, I kinda wish the alligator guy wasn’t CGI but I guess I can live with that). I just hope the comedy is not too intrusive and it’s handled well and this doesn’t become one of those series with a great setting and premise that’s ruined by constant, obnoxious comedy (looking at you, Drifters…).
    Also looking forward to checking out ID Invaded. I loved the Dragon dentist and if I’m not mistaken this series is written by the same guy (although it couldn’t look more different).

  15. L

    Hmm, there might be some hope here.

    I treat Yuasa the same way you treat Shinkai (and vice-versa), so Eizoken will definitely get a download. Maybe Kyoukou Suiri, although the manga can get draggy at times.

    I like the Somali manga, but am pretty sure the anime studio will decimate it (there’s no way they have the budget to reproduce that kind of detailed art) the same way Hakumei+Mikochi got butchered, and either way I don’t like it enough to bother repeating the story in animated form.

    Might give Pet a chance. Never read the source material, so it’ll be new to me. Not sure if it’ll be my thing, but will give it a fair chance.

  16. O

    Do you think the Orphen remake might be worth watching? I wasn’t too interested at first, but the PV’s look suprisingly good and the staff seems solid. Might be a fun show to watch.

  17. I’m not really a fan of the first one, but I’ll check out the premiere. No expectations but you never know.

  18. D

    Runway de waratte has hype start, similar feel to Bakuman.
    To be honest the Somali one is too slow for me, it’s like the Ancient Magus’ Bride but coupled with slice of life pace. It can reach Dungeon Meshi level if only it has more engaging story line.

    Dorohedoro is too violent for my taste although it does showcase a different feel than your usual anime, a work of art not for everyone.

  19. y

    Have you watched the new trailer of Eizouken? It looks so promising.

  20. Yuasa is literally incapable of making anime that doesn’t look interesting. My issue here is that the material (admittedly only 4 translated chapters) strikes me as very mediocre.

  21. y

    Well I see. But, it got nomination for Manga Taisho in 2018, I have high hope the material is getting better.

  22. Like I said, my take is based on only the first four chapters. Which I find very uninteresting. Doesn’t mean it stays that way – we’ll see.

  23. I’m such a sucker for Masaaki Yuasa: even if the story might not be perfect, I embrace every bit of animation that’s unique and different than the cookie-cutter norm. Ping Pong, Kaiba and Tatami Galaxy are some of my all-time favorites and I’m willing to give anything he works on a chance. (Devilman Crybaby was a bit too rushed for my taste, but it definitely had guts to try and pull that off. I’d rather see anime fail to succeed than not try at all.)
    Eunyoung Choi also is a master imo. Her work on Kaiba, PPTA and that one episode of Space Dandy especially… Woo boy am I excited for this show lol

    I’m also quite heartened by the fact that fewer anime are coming out every season; I hope this is significant of a greater trend. The industry is definitely facing problems due to over-extension; hopefully production committees realize this and value quality over quantity in 2020. Who knows…. but I’m hopeful. 2019 gave us the excellent MP100 S2, Vinland Saga and Jojo part 5. Hopefully 2020 will also have some gems 🙂

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