It’s probably in bad taste to compare military dramas to sports series, but in a way, the two genres are kind of similar.  You have your setup episodes, where you meet the cast and get to know them.  You have the night before the big game episode, where everyone reflects on the battle to come.  And generally an aftermath, as the tears flow and the survivors (just play along for argument’s sake) reflect on their victory – or defeat.

The tentpoles of sports anime of course – what all that other material is stretched around – are the game episodes themselves.  And that’s definitely what we had this week on Angolmois, where the siege of Kanatanoki begins in earnest.  What we know and the defenders don’t, of course, is that Shiraishi has betrayed the defenders.  Nagamine suspects but doesn’t act; Jinzaburou should suspect but seems not to.  If this super-warrior has a blind spot, it appears to be personal loyalty – it’s what got him banished in the first place.  But ironically that same loyalty that ended his life as a landed samurai now threatens to end his life altogether due to being misplaced.

My sense of what happens with Shiraishi’s betrayal on the West Wall – why it doesn’t result in unmitigated disaster – is not that Nagamine or Kuchii had predicted it, but that they were being exceptionally careful.  To what extent that came from suspicion and what from simple acknowledgement of their desperate situation I’m not sure, but their fire traps were certainly a sensible measure in hindsight.  Burning your land behind you is not a decision that could have been taken lightly for a people who live as the Toibarai do, but it’s better than being wiped out.

The question of time is an interesting one as it plays out in all this.  In one sense it’s Kuchii’s greatest enemy, since he desperately needs his reinforcements, and holding out till they arrive is his safest strategy.  But it’s also true that time is Jinzaburou’s friend, because the Mongols don’t really need to win this battle – and their generals know it.  Kyushuu is the real prize and always has been – remaining on Tsushima to battle its defenders is a matter of plunder and pride, but there are limits to both of those motivating factors.  It’s a delicate equation – the harder this is the more incentive there is for the Mongols to give up before they lose too much time and/or manpower.  But the more they’re humiliated by Kuchii and his guerrilla band, the more their pride demands a pound of flesh as revenge.

The other factor playing out in the defender’s favor is the diversity of the Mongol forces – which is historically accurate.  This is not one unified invasion force – it’s multiple armies of multiple ethnicities and languages, to some extent in fierce competition with each other.  I think this really comes into play in the siege of Kanatanoki, as poor decisions are made on the basis of haste or a desire to stand out.

Ultimately, though, Kuchii probably has a stronger ally in psychology than anything else.  The more he can convince the Mongols that he’s crazy, indefatigable or both, the less appetite for this war of attrition they’re going to have.  And after his attempted sabotage of the West Wall mostly fails, Shiraishi – as always too clever by half – realizes that bringing Jinzaburou’s head back is probably the best way to restore his standing with the Mongols.  The irony here is strong – Shiraishi has become the very thing he detested so much in Obusama, and he’s smart enough to realize the full depth of his crimes.  But he’s pot committed now, and given that Kuchii wears an armor that’s stronger than Mithril with three episodes left, if I were Shiraishi I would avoid buying any green bananas.